Am I back-testing correctly?

Hi all

I am currently paper trading a trend following strategy based on the Turtles system. I am entering long on 52-week highs and exiting when moving averages cross, and vice-versa for my short positions. I want to back-test by system, but would rather do it manually than on a computer program as I feel this would be more beneficial to my learning, and I'd have more input over the trades that I take.

I am planning to go back as far as I can in a stock chart and literally just scroll through the history of the price, taking the signals and trades, and making a record on whether or not it was a win/loss. I will also start with a realistic amount of capital and record it's fluctuations throughout, and ultimately whether or not I am in profit or in loss by the end.

My main concern is whether or not this is this an effective/useful exercise and means of backtesting, as when I actually begin trading I won't just be trading one stock from start to finish? I was planning to carry out numerous back-tests in this way, each stock at a time, and see if my results were generally good/bad, but I am wondering whether or not this is an accurate representation as I will be trading multiple stocks at each time when I begin trading in real-life, therefore meaning the number of false signals/losses I could take and drawdown will be higher. Is this just one of the limitations of historical backtesting, or is there a more effective way of doing this?

Any thoughts would be massively appreciated.

Thanks
Sami

Am I back-testing correctly?

Move to Break-even.

Hi, I have started to dabble in spread-betting major shares on daily charts, and am happy with where I enter a bet.
My problem comes with how to manage the bet. Very often, at the end of day, I may be a small number of points to the good, say 1 or 2. My stop-loss will be much further away from entry on the other side of the trade.
I have read that a trader should "move his stop-loss to break-even as soon as possible." This is from Dr Elder, (by the way, from a book I rate highly, Come Into My Trading Room.) But when is "as soon as possible?
I could take my small profit. My risk:reward ratio is then going to be high.
I could move my stop-loss to break-even. My stop is then going to be only 1 or 2 points away, and I will likely be hit.
I could move the stop-loss to a point where I guarantee half my profit. Then it will be even closer to current price.

Has anyone else considered this dilemma? I'm sure there must be thousands of people. Maybe we could come to some consensus of opinion.

Cheers,
Dave

Move to Break-even.

Spreadbet automated trading from tick charts

This is my first attempt at a system. Its based on tick charts of US30. The trades are executed from Pro realtime on IG index. I can back test ok but am unable to go live using tick charts. Is there any other SB co that offers this feature?

Cheers very much

Chris

Spreadbet automated trading from tick charts

Futures trading predictions

Hello,

I have ready made graphs predicting futures and their up/down movement for months in advance . The details are very accurate and I can provide a 1 week trial to anyone that is interested in predictions for gold , silver , copper, crude oil , the Dow Jones , and more . They are provided in graph format and have proven to be extremely accurate over the last 2 years . The information is acquired in such a way that an 80% accuracy can be guaranteed .

Hint of the day : buy copper on Thursday night (EST) and sell it the following Wednesday morning (EST) . I'd love to hear everyone's insight on this move .

If you are interested in charts/graphs/predictions , please Call me or text me at
+1-647-281-6386.

Thank you .

Futures trading predictions

Risk and Behavioural Analytic Software

Introducing PsyQuation a risk and behavioural analytic alert system for traders.

We launched a beta version on the 20th May with the full version going live on the 8th June next week Wednesday, the software is FREE.

Please come and visit and check us out www.psyquation.com

Attached Thumbnails

 

Risk and Behavioural Analytic Software

The Bitcoin price has reached 20-month high and the market can't understand why!

From last Friday morning, the price of Bitcoin has jumped by 15% and briefly reached $530. This is the highest price on cryptocurrency since August 2014, when the Bitcoin was trading at $532 level.

The total capitalization of the total turnover in a such way Bitcoin reached $8 billion, reports Quartz.

Presumably there are a few reasons that could happen to a jump in prices. Portal Zerohedge linked price increase with an increase in trading volume and demand for Bitcoin in China. There cryptocurrency investors buy for $573. This assumption is confirmed by a study of the specialized publication Coindesk, published in early 2016. According to it, trade Bitcoins using the Chinese yuan is 95% of all transactions cryptocurrency, against 80% in May 2015.

Another possible factor is the increased cost of Ethereum, digital financial platform, which caught Microsoft attention, IBM and Delloitte. In Ethereum and ether virtual currency last week was also successful. One of the most successful Bitcoin startups in the context of investment attracted Coinbase said about support the ether trading on new Exchange GDAX. Although the price of ether decreased over the past few days.

Coindesk could not give a clear explanation of the current rise in prices. Peter Zikovski, COO of the company Trade Bitcoins Whaleclub said to Coindesk: "There is no clear motive or catalyst, which is behind the recent increase in prices".

And what do you think about Bitcoin jumped price?

The Bitcoin price has reached 20-month high and the market can't understand why!

Nifty upbeat, caution if US Treasury Yield trades above 36bps

Indian Market Outlook:
FII continued their buying spree across all segments in the Indian markets after buying worth Rs.16126 Cr in Index Options, worth Rs.9073 Cr in Index Futures and worth Rs.981 Cr in the cash segment in last 6 days. The huge buying of FII and PRO buy in future and options suggests that 8336 are in the cards for Nifty in the coming days. SGX Nifty is trading at 8205 at 8:40 am IST. Nifty is expected to open at same levels i.e. a gap up of 11 points.

International Market Outlook:
China PMI announced today morning came a tad higher at 50.1 from the expectation of 50.0. Crude Oil prices are under pressure on Wednesday morning today's OPEC meeting would set the tone for further price direction for crude. It is expected that the OPEC meeting scheduled on 2nd June would be to decide on the market share for the Oil production countries rather than putting control on the production levels. Moreover, the concerns over the slowing demand from the Chinese economy are pushing crude further down.

Help from: Dynamic Levels

Nifty upbeat, caution if US Treasury Yield trades above 36bps