Andy Siman surprisingly optimistic for the investor who puts on the currency in the eyes of most analysts doomed to weaken.
Renminbi Bond company Stratton Street Capital fund manager says he has become an unexpected devaluation of the RMB market in August and a series of followed it frightening predictions did not shake his faith in the yuan. He expects that by the end of this year, the Chinese currency will appreciate against the dollar and will continue to go up in the coming years due to the current account surplus, the central bank struggle with the players for a fall, and the inflow of foreign investment in the country liberalized market bonds.
This optimism is dissonant with the consensus forecast, according to which yuan will be cheaper next year. However, Siman's reputation as one of the most successful portfolio managers of the world does not allow to fend off his assessments. The last five years of his main Bond Fund brought investors in dollar terms of 9.5% annually, surpassing not only the Asian competitors, but also 99% of the more than 14,000 tracked Bloomberg around the world bond funds.
"People are still discussing the negative scenarios, but they are not true, in fact, - said by telephone from London Siman, managing assets of approximately $1 billion. - Basic position of the yuan will be strong for a long time, and it is possible to earn. "
For existing 8 years Renminbi Bond Fund Seaman buying dollar bonds of Asian issuers of investment grade and invest in RMB with an equivalent amount of forward contracts that the futures market can be bought at a discount. Bids RMB above, which allows to make the so-called positive carry. The dollar showed some of his fund this year yield of 5.7%, including through the strengthening of the yuan by 0.8% in the offshore market in Hong Kong.
Siman from Stratton Street does not give specific forecasts of the exchange rate, but expects that within the next decade, the yuan will be strengthened by an average of 2-3% per year.
Renminbi Bond company Stratton Street Capital fund manager says he has become an unexpected devaluation of the RMB market in August and a series of followed it frightening predictions did not shake his faith in the yuan. He expects that by the end of this year, the Chinese currency will appreciate against the dollar and will continue to go up in the coming years due to the current account surplus, the central bank struggle with the players for a fall, and the inflow of foreign investment in the country liberalized market bonds.
This optimism is dissonant with the consensus forecast, according to which yuan will be cheaper next year. However, Siman's reputation as one of the most successful portfolio managers of the world does not allow to fend off his assessments. The last five years of his main Bond Fund brought investors in dollar terms of 9.5% annually, surpassing not only the Asian competitors, but also 99% of the more than 14,000 tracked Bloomberg around the world bond funds.
"People are still discussing the negative scenarios, but they are not true, in fact, - said by telephone from London Siman, managing assets of approximately $1 billion. - Basic position of the yuan will be strong for a long time, and it is possible to earn. "
For existing 8 years Renminbi Bond Fund Seaman buying dollar bonds of Asian issuers of investment grade and invest in RMB with an equivalent amount of forward contracts that the futures market can be bought at a discount. Bids RMB above, which allows to make the so-called positive carry. The dollar showed some of his fund this year yield of 5.7%, including through the strengthening of the yuan by 0.8% in the offshore market in Hong Kong.
Siman from Stratton Street does not give specific forecasts of the exchange rate, but expects that within the next decade, the yuan will be strengthened by an average of 2-3% per year.
Trader, who bypassed 99% debt funds, puts on the yuan rise
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