jeudi 16 juin 2016

Bond yields hit low, now I expect a bounce, this is why...

The 10 year bond yield hit a low close to 1.50% today. It has been in a downward spiral since expectations for the Federal Reserve to not raise interest rates in June began to decline weeks ago, following a poor Non Farm Payrolls number. It all hit a climax yesterday when the Federal Reserve confirmed they would not raise rates and lowered overall expectations for future rate hikes. When trading, it is important to remember that the market prices things in, ultimately when something does occur that was being priced in, you get a knee jerk conclusion move and then the bottom is in. This is likely what happened yesterday and this morning with yields. They flushed on the actual Federal Reserve non action but because they were already so oversold and expecting the news, a low is likely in place. Notice the chart below on the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr (NYSEARCA:TBT). Notice how there is a long tail on it. TBT trades with yields so it tells us yields are starting to bounce. Also, note how oversold it is in the last 2 weeks. A technical bounce is likely and a bottoming tail today would be a great signal of it coming. Bottoming tails are bullish. I don't just talk ;) I post my trades live and verify them on VerifiedInvesting...

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Bond yields hit low, now I expect a bounce, this is why...

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