Why are the odds for Brexit so different at the bookies compared to the polls?
I mostly think the bookies are a better way of finding out the odds of political issues, because it's people actually putting money where there mouths are.
However, could this be the case with Brexit:
The payout for Brexit-vote is 2.8 (36% chance)... for Remain 1.55 (64%), while polls are 50:50..
Does this merely reflect the move in financial markets after the vote?
So, the move after a Brexit-vote will be significantly more than a Remain-vote... about 2x as much... 10% down vs 5% up?
From a trading/investing point of view this makes sense right? Or is it just getting late and I just need to go home and have a beer?
I mostly think the bookies are a better way of finding out the odds of political issues, because it's people actually putting money where there mouths are.
However, could this be the case with Brexit:
The payout for Brexit-vote is 2.8 (36% chance)... for Remain 1.55 (64%), while polls are 50:50..
Does this merely reflect the move in financial markets after the vote?
So, the move after a Brexit-vote will be significantly more than a Remain-vote... about 2x as much... 10% down vs 5% up?
From a trading/investing point of view this makes sense right? Or is it just getting late and I just need to go home and have a beer?
Brexit odds at bookies vs polls vs trade
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